孙远的研究生管理专业入学考试作文讲义四
in the second place, the arguer fails to provide the necessary information
based on which we can evaluate the comprehensive effect of the government s
action. the background of the incident is that the drug abuse has now
become ever more serious a social problem than anytime in the past. and
this is what motivated the government actions against drug trafficking in
the first place. we, therefore, can reasonably assume that before the
government took actions the abuse of all major popular drugs had been on
the trend of increase, including the use of cocaine. the newspaper
editorial, however, only mentions the observed increase in the use of
cocaine while failing to provide any information to specify the current
increase and that before the government strengthened its drug contraction
efforts. we thus cannot compare the patterns of change in this aspect
before and after the government actions in order to reach any valid
conclusion about the impact of the government actions on the use of
cocaine.
if the trend of increase in cocaine abuse has been slowed down, or if the
total amount of illegal drugs in the market has been significantly reduced,
even though the absolute use of cocaine is still increasing, we would say
that the government efforts in apprehending drug traffickers are somehow
effective.
in conclusion, the arguer oversimplifies the cause-and-effect relationship
between government s increased efforts and the observed increase in the
illegal use of cocaine. to strengthen the argument, the arguer would have
to provide evidence that the government s enforcement efforts have directly
led to the increased supply and use of cocaine. to better evaluate the
argument, we would need more information about the trend of increase in the
use of cocaine and other drugs before and after the government s actions.
六、argument典型逻辑错误
1. 调查类逻辑错误
抽样的程序是否具有随机性
样品是否足够大
example 1:
the following appeared as part of an article in a trade magazine for
breweries.
“magic hat brewery recently released the results of a survey of visitors
to its tasting room last year. magic hat reports that the majority of
visitors asked to taste its low-calorie beers. to boost sales, other small
breweries should brew low-calorie beers as well.”
example 2:
the following appeared in a memorandum from a member of a financial
management and consulting firm.
“we have learned from an employee of witful ltd. that is accounting
department by checking about 10% of the last month purchasing invoices for
errors any inconsistencies saved the company some $10,000 in over-payments.
in order to help our clients increase the net gains, we should advise each
of them to institute a policy of checking all purchasing invoices for
errors. such recommendation could also help us get the witful account by
demonstrating to witful the regressness of our methods.'
a. the source of the news is not dependable.
b. the sample cannot reflect the general condition.
2. 错误类比
example:
the following appeared in a memorandum from the owner of carlo s clothing
to the staff.
'since disc depot, the music store on the next block, began a new radio
advertising campaign last year, its business has grown dramatically, as
evidenced by the large increase in foot traffic into the store. while the
disc depot s owners have apparently become wealthy enough to retire,
profits at carlo s clothing have remained stagnant for the past three
years. in order to boost our sales and profits, we should therefore switch
from newspaper advertising to frequent radio advertisements like those for